Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-05-19T00:26:58

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) has remained at normal Background levels over the past 24 hours.

There is only one source of fast wind possible in the four-day period, the minor coronal hole doublet of CH03/-. This is a persistent feature, but its influence during the past rotation was entirely masked by a CME-derived G4. MOSWOC Enlil's current thoughts of a gradual rise to 450-500km/s is accepted, but not until tomorrow, with low confidence. Therefore high energy electron flux is expected to rise as result of the HSS from CH03, but not until later in the period, reaching moderate levels.

The associated fluence is expected to remain below the Active (1e8 integrated flux) level throughout, but with an increasing trend likely late in the period, as indicated by the Met Office REFM model.