Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-05-17T00:09:05

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) has remained largely at Normal Background levels over the past 24 hours, and this is likely to remain the case through the coming four days in the expected absence of any drivers for increasing counts.

The sole coronal hole on the disc, CH03/-, is mooted for a Friday 19 May arrival by MOSWOC Enlil. While this is a persistent feature, its last pass was dominated by a G4 Severe Geomagnetic Storm from a CME, and its predictive value is therefore very limited.

All considered, given the small stature of CH03 and its arrival perhaps not being until day 3 (19 May), any eventual effect on electron flux and fluence ought to fall outside the current four-day period, giving fluence levels comfortably below Active throughout.