MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-05-16T00:16:35
The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) has ranged from Moderate to Normal Background levels over the past 24 hours, as in the previous UTC day, implying a steady state has been reached. In the absence of significant solar wind speed enhancements, electron flux and fluence levels are forecast to remain below Active throughout.
The REFM indicates a possible enhancement to the electron flux on day 2 and day 3 but this is most likely to be a reflection of what happened on the last rotation, with the arrival of a couple of CMEs on 18 and 19 April.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2023-05-16T00:16:35 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 1% | 1% |