MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-05-15T00:14:49
The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) has ranged from Moderate to Normal Background levels over the past 24 hours, as in the previous UTC day, implying a steady state has been reached. In the absence of significant solar wind speed enhancements, electron flux and fluence levels are forecast to remain below Active throughout. However, there remains some uncertainty towards the end of the period due to the potential interaction of glancing blows from CME on Earth's electron belts Days 1-2 (15-16 May).
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2023-05-15T00:14:49 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 10% | 1% |