MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-05-14T00:11:05
The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) has ranged from Moderate to Normal Background levels over the past 24 hours, as in the previous UTC day, implying a steady state has been reached.
With very little on the disc likely to cause a significant solar wind speed enhancements (the tenuous unnumbered coronal hole included), electron flux and fluence ought to remain below Active throughout, with increasing uncertainty later in the period.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2023-05-14T00:11:05 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 10% | 1% |