Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-05-12T00:29:22

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is expected to remain below the high level through much of the period, due to a combination of significant geomagnetic activity redistributing elections away from GEO orbits and also increased solar wind speeds distorting the electron belts away from GEO. The British Antarctic Survey Radiation belt Model (BAS-RBM) is suggesting that the anticipated CME could feed electrons into lower Earth orbits, where they could be contained until any CME effects and solar wind speeds ease later in the period. This would allow the belts to relax back towards their natural orbits.

Electron fluence values are on a slight increasing trend due to the recent CME effects and fast solar wind, but appear to have reached a plateau. Values are expected to remain below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) level throughout, but with decreasing confidence towards the end of the period, as the effects of forecast CME arrivals and solar wind speeds subside.