MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-05-09T12:29:54
High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) observed by GOES16 is expected to persist at normal background to moderate levels, with a possibility of reaching diurnally high levels on 10 May ahead of the anticipated CME arrival either late 10 or early 11 May. This is in accordance with persistence and the latest MOSWOC REFM output, both of which would suggest a continuation near current comfortably sub-active fluence levels.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2023-05-09T12:29:54 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 5% | 1% |