Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-05-08T00:05:53

The electron forecast is of particularly low confidence, especially beyond day 1 (8th May) as it will be dependent upon the arrival of CMEs, which have a large amount of uncertainty on them. 

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) observed by GOES- is at background, and is expected to largely persist at this level through day 1 and 2 (8th-09th May) due to the possibility of further CME arrivals. As the geospace environment eases on day 3 and into day 4 (10th-11th May), electron count rates at GEO have the potential to rise again. This may allow diurnal peak to reach Moderate levels, with a chance of reaching High.  

The associated 24 hour fluence remains well below the active level and is expected to persist at this level during days 1 and 2, with only a chance of rising again by the end of day 3 (10th May). REFM is likely to be unreliable in the forecast period due to arrival of CMEs.