Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-05-07T00:13:54

The electron forecast is of particularly low confidence, especially beyond day 1 (07 May) as it will be dependent upon the arrival of CMEs, which have a large amount of uncertainty on them. 

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) observed by GOES-16 at GEO, dropped out to background levels early on 06 May, due to the arrival of a CME. These background levels are expected to largely persist day 1 and 2 (07-08 May) due to the likelihood of further CME arrivals. As the geospace environment eases on day 3 and into day 4 (09-10 May), electron count rates at GEO have the potential to rise again. This may allow diurnal peak to reach Moderate levels, with a chance of reaching High.  

The associated 24 hour fluence has dropped below the active level and is expected to persist at this level during days 1 and 2, with only a chance of rising again by the end of day 4 (09 May). REFM is likely to be unreliable in the forecast period due to arrival of CMEs.