Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-05-06T00:28:43

High energy (greater than 2MeV) electron flux levels are forecast to continue at high levels through 06 May, but then any confidence decreases rapidly. This is firstly due to the onset of a high speed stream, expected during 06 May, which could introduce further electrons into the belts, and with an estimated speed of 400-500km/s is unlikely to significantly distort the belts. The second source of uncertainty is due to the forecast arrival of two CMEs on 07 May and possible associated geomagnetic storms. There is a likelihood that electron counts could remain above the threshold after brief dips, as the CME fronts first displace the radiations belts from GEO orbit, before injecting further electrons into the radiation belts. 

Electron fluence values, which are currently above the Active threshold on a steady trend, may see dips towards to the 1e8 integrated pfu level in response to marked decreases in the electron counts. Uncertainty the falls sharply through the period, with a 50% risk of 08 and 09 May indicative of this uncertainty.