Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-05-04T00:22:02

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) at GEO is expected to continue to follow an oscillating diurnal cycle above the high (1e3pfu) threshold through much of, if not all of the next four days in the absence of any significant modifying factors. The value of the peaks may fall slowly, but these peaks are still expected to exceed the high threshold. Modifying factors such as a low probability CME glance on 04 or 05 May and a possible high speed stream connection on 06 May could briefly suppress electron counts.

Electron fluence values are at Active (1e8 integrated pfu) levels and are expected to continue above this threshold for much, if not all of the period. A steady decline could occur, but this is likely to be very slow.