Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-05-02T00:11:00

High energy (greater than 2MeV) electron flux as observed by GOES-16 at GEO is expected to continue at mainly High levels through day 1 (02 May), albeit probably with an overall declining trend outside of diurnal influences. Confidence falls by the end of day 1 due to the chance of CME arrivals, which have the potential to suppress the observed flux if they occur. However, these are generally expected to miss Earth with mainly High levels continuing. By day 3 and 4 (04 and 05 May) more prolonged periods of Moderate to Background flux are likely, mainly during the diurnal minimum period, with peak flux gradually declining. 

Electron fluence is currently above the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold and is likely to stay that way through the period, but with an erratically decreasing trend. There is very slightly elevated probabilities of Very High fluence being reached on day 1 (02 May). Confidence reduces day 3 (04 May) onward, due to uncertainties about how quickly peak flux values will decay, along with the potential for any CME arrivals resulting in flux dropping out. REFM supports a declining trend, however this is currently considered likely too rapid with its decline.