Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-05-01T00:28:31

High energy (greater than 2MeV) electron flux as observed by GOES-16 at GEO is expected to continue at mainly High through days 1 and 2 (01 and 02 May), albeit with a declining trend.  Confidence falls by the end of day 2 due to the low chance of CME arrivals, which have the potential to drop out the observed flux if they occur. However, these are currently expected to miss, with mainly High levels continuing. By day 3 and 4 (03 and 04 May) more prolonged periods of Moderate to Background flux are likely, mainly during the diurnal minimum period, with peak flux gradually declining. 

Electron fluence is currently above the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold and is likely to stay that way through the period, but with an erratically decreasing trend, Confidence reduces day 3 onward, due to uncertainties about how quickly peak flux values will decay, along with the potential for any CME arrivals resulting in flux dropping out REFM supports a declining trend, however this is currently considered likely too rapid with its decline.