Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-04-30T00:11:04

High energy (greater than 2MeV) electron flux at GEO is currently at High levels, and is most likely to continue to reach High levels, especially around the diurnal maxima through the coming days. As the current HSS wanes, it is likely that electron flux will initially increase further. However, on day 3 (2 May) there is a slight chance of glancing CME influence, which increases uncertainty in the forecast in the second half of the period, and could potentially lower flux levels significantly.

Electron fluence is currently above the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold and is most likely to stay that way through the period, with an initial rising trend on day 1 (30 Apr) and perhaps into day 2 (1 May). MOSWOC REFM is also forecasting an above Active trend, increasing confidence in the forecast. The slight chance of any CME influence could cause a drop in fluence level however, mainly from day 3.