Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-04-29T00:11:02

High energy (greater than 2MeV) electron flux at GEO is currently at High levels, and is most likely to continue to reach High levels at the diurnal maxima through the coming days. The BAS radiation belt model is suggesting that electron density has significantly increased below GEO, likely due to a combination of recent CME and HSS effects. As the current HSS wanes, it is likely that electron flux will increase further through this period. Although there is a low risk of some glancing CME influence, it is considered most likely that these will miss Earth entirely, allowing the flux to stay at High levels.

Electron fluence is currently above the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold, and is most likely to stay that way through the period, perhaps on a rising trend. MOSWOC REFM is also forecasting an above Active trend, increasing confidence in the forecast. The very slight risk of any CME influence could cause a drop in fluence level, however.