Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-04-28T00:13:51

High energy (greater than 2MeV) electron flux at GEO is currently at High levels, and is expected to remain at High levels for much of the forecast period, with only occasional dips down to Moderate levels today during variations in the diurnal cycle. The predominanrly High electron flux levels are expected in response to the recent Strong solar winds from the HSS from CH96, and for Elevated to Strong winds to persist today and tomorrow. Also, there is a decreasing chance of significant geomagnetic activity supressing the electron flux.

The associated electron fluence is expected to rise above the Active threshold (1e8 integrated flux) today, and then remain there for the rest of the forecast period, with a slight but increasing chance of Very Active (1e9 integrated flux) levels being reached. Although the Met Office REFM is currently overestimating the fluence, the overall trend of an increasing fluence above the Active threshold is accepted as good guidance.