Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-04-27T00:13:44

High energy (greater than 2MeV) electron flux is currently at predominantly moderate levels. The BAS radiation belt model suggests that electron density has increased in the radiation belt due to recent CME influence. However, elevated wind speeds with the recent arrival of the HSS associated with CH96 mean that the radiation belt may become compressed with electron flux levels suppressed at GEO. Flux levels expected to remain generally suppressed through Days 1 and 2 (27-28 Apr) with the possibility of minor geomagnetic activity from combined CME and HSS effects. As HSS effects start to ease through Day 3 and 4 (29-30 Apr) a rise is then probable.

The associated 24-hour integrated fluence is expected to show a generally declining trend on Day 1, but with a chance of  Active (1e8 integrated pfu) levels to start, followed by more suppressed activity through Days 2 and 3 (28-29 Apr). An increase may occur on Day 4 (29-30 Apr) following the expected easing of geomagnetic activity, but with low confidence. MOSWOC REFM model is currently providing somewhat poor guidance, most likely due to recent CME influence.