Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-04-26T00:29:28

High energy (greater than 2MeV) electron flux remains at predominantly moderate levels. The BAS radiation belt model suggests that electron density has increased in the radiation belt from the recent CME effects. As wind speeds ease during Day 1 (26 Apr), it is likely that the radiation belt will relax towards GEO, carrying the increased density and causing an increase in electron flux at GOES-16. However, the arrival of a HSS from CH96/- and a further probable CME (see Geomagnetic Storm section) from Day 1 into Day 2 (26-27 Apr) is then likely to suppress electron flux levels once more. Flux may reach high levels at the diurnal peak during Day 1 after which time, it is more likely to remain at lower, more background levels until Day 4 (29 Apr), although the end of the period is low confidence at present.

The associated 24-hour integrated fluence is expected to continue to show a steady or slightly rising trend on Day 1, with a chance of reaching Active (1e8 integrated pfu), followed by a decline through Days 2 and 3 (27-28 Apr). An increase may occur on Day 4 following the expected easing of Geomagnetic activity, but with low confidence.