Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-04-25T00:08:53

High energy (greater than 2MeV) electron flux reached moderate levels at the diurnal peak today. The BAS radiation belt model is suggesting that electron density has increased in the radiation belt from the recent CME effects. As wind speeds ease, it is likely that the radiation belt will relax towards GEO, carrying the increased density and causing an increase in electron flux at GOES-16. However, a further possible CME/HSS combination (see Geomagnetic Storm section) from Day 2 into Day 3 (26-27 Apr) is likely to suppress levels once again. Flux may reach moderate to high levels at the diurnal peak in the next couple of days, but is more likely to be lower later in the period.

The associated 24-hour integrated fluence is likely to show a rising trend through Days 1 and 2 (25-26 Apr), with a chance of reaching Active (1e8 integrated pfu), followed by a decline through Days 3 and 4 (27-28 Apr). MOSWOC REFM is suggesting a rise just below Active, which seems like a reasonable guide for the first couple of days, although it won't be taking into account any CME/HSS arrival during Days 2 or 3.