Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-04-23T00:12:10

High energy (greater than 2MeV) electron flux is currently at Normal Background levels. The most likely drivers of any change to this state of affairs are the twin negative coronal holes CH94/- and CH95/-, however MOSWOC Enlil does not currently support either becoming geoeffective. Should persistence methods prove accurate, a 450-550km/s fast wind may occur, however even this would likely be marginal for electron flux to breach the diurnal High threshold. The chances of 24-hour integrated electron fluence breaching Active are considered Slight during the period, probably reaching a new equilibrium into the new UTC working week, with the caveat that the driving coronal hole fast winds and possibly interrupting CME(s) carry a lowering of confidence.