Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-04-21T00:20:59

High energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux is currently at background levels with little change expected throughout much of the period, although through day 4 (24th) an increase to moderate to occasionally high levels is likely in response to HSS effects. The associated 24-hour integrated fluence is expected to remain below the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu), but with an increasing trend later in the period.

The associated 24-hour integrated fluence is expected to remain below the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu), but with an increasing trend later in the period. MOSWOC REFM is forecasting a decreasing trend through today, with an increasing trend thereafter, while keeping the fluence below the Active threshold. This is accepted as offering good guidance.