Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-04-20T00:09:48

Recent CME effects may have increased electron density in the radiation belts. However, enhanced geomagnetic activity due to a further expected CME arrival either on Day 1 or 2 (20 or 21 Apr) is likely to suppress any brief increase in electron flux that may arise. It is possible that electron flux may start to rise towards the end of the period as CME effects wane, although there is also the possibility of a coronal hole high speed stream at this time which means that flux levels are most likely to stay suppressed through this period.

Electron fluence is expected to remain below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold throughout due to the forecast geomagnetic enhancements. MOSWOC REFM is forecasting an increase in fluence, although below Active levels, but this model won't be taking account of the anticipated CME arrival and is therefore unreliable at this time.