Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-04-18T00:15:58

As the solar wind is relatively muted with no significant high speed streams to feed electrons into the radiation belts, or solar wind pressure to suppress the belts into lower orbits the high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) has been at background and is expected to remain so for much of the forecast period. Enhanced geomagnetic activity due to forecast CME arrivals on 19 and 20 Apr could prolong this depression, with a gradual increase most likely beyond the end of the forecast period as the geomagnetic activity fades.

Electron fluence is expected to remain below the Active threshold due to the geomagnetic enhancements.