Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-04-16T00:12:06

High energy electron flux (greater then 2MeV) is at background levels and is likely to remain muted in a benign solar wind environment with no significant high speed stream effects expected. The British Antarctic Survey radiation Belt Model (BAS-RBM) is forecasting a similarly muted environment, with good verification from the last four days. Any inputs from CME effects may have a neutral effect in the short term, considering the balance between an increase in any geomagnetic activity and input of material into the radiation belts.

The associated electron fluence forecast is well below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold and is expected to remain so during the forecast period. MOSWOC REFM is forecasting a slightly rising trend in fluence for the next four days, viewed as good guidance.