Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-04-15T00:10:09

The high energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux is currently at Normal Background levels, and is now most likely to remain at this level in the absence of any uptick in flux following last week's CH91/+ fast wind. Any increase in the forecast period will now rely on the low confidence events of one or both of the CH92 and CH93/+ fast winds becoming geoeffective, else marginal CME effects from Sunday 16 April.

The associated 24-hour integrated fluence is currently expected to remain below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold throughout, but perhaps with a slight rising trend.

MOSWOC REFM is suggesting only minor rises, and is presently considered to be giving good guidance. The main caveat to this forecast is the low confidence fast wind(s), and also a CME that could feature - both facets that REFM does not take account of (none being persistent features). Forecast 'error bars' therefore increase slightly into the new working week given the uncertainties involved.