Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-04-14T00:17:35

The high energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux is currently at Normal Background levels, but may rise into the forthcoming UTC weekend in the likely absence of any significant geomagnetic activity. However, any rise is expected to be fairly modest and subject to uncertainty given the potential of glancing CME and HSS effects into the period.

The associated 24-hour integrated fluence is currently expected to be below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold throughout, but perhaps with a slight rising trend. MOSWOC REFM is suggesting only minor rises and is presently considered to be giving good guidance, albeit with the caveat that there are several low confidence CMEs that could feature in the forecast that REFM is not able to accommodate.