MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-04-13T00:25:15
The high energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux is currently at background levels, but is likely to rise in response to the recent solar wind enhancement. However, any rise is expected to be fairly modest and subject to uncertainty given the potential of glancing CME and HSS effects into the period.
The associated 24 hour fluence is currently expected to be below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold throughout, but perhaps with a slight rising trend. REFM is suggesting only minor rises and is presently considered to be giving good guidance.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2023-04-13T00:25:15 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 20% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 20% | 1% |