MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-04-12T00:20:52
The high energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux is at background levels and any rise due to the observed solar wind enhancements is expected to be subdued. Peak diurnal values might reach high levels from day 2 (13 April) onwards, but any rise is expected to be fairly modest.
The associated 24 hour fluence is expected to be below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold throughout, but perhaps with a slight rising trend. REFM is suggesting only minor rises and is presently considered to be giving good guidance.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2023-04-12T00:20:52 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 20% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 30% | 1% |