MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-04-09T00:09:05
High energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) as observed by GOES-16 is forecast to be mainly Moderate, but perhaps reaching High levels at diurnal peak periods. A general but erratic declining trend is expected to start the period. A more notable dropout is then expected later day 2 and into day 3 (10 and 11 Apr) due to the onset of the HSS of CH91/+,
The associated 24 hour fluence is expected to be remain below the Active threshold, gradually declining through days 1-2 (9-10 Apr). This is supported by REFM which is expected to give generally good guidance.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2023-04-09T00:09:05 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 5% | 1% |