Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-04-07T00:10:53

High energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) is forecast to diurnally oscillate between moderate and high (1000 pfu) levels through much of the forecast period. As the solar wind has now recently eased, the pressure on the radiation belt will also ease allowing it to relax towards GEO. The British Antarctic Survey Radiation Belt Model (BAS-RBM) is currently suggesting higher energy electron density at lower orbits, which could then give an increase in electron flux at GEO through Days 1-2 (07-08 Apr) as the belt continues to relax.

Electron fluence reached the Active threshold by 06/0900 UTC where it has since remained. It seems likely that fluence will remain at or near the Active threshold through much of the forecast period, with the possibility of a rise through Days 1-2 if there is increased electron density at lower orbits as described above. Conversely, MOSWOC REFM is suggesting a decline through the forecast period, which, although leads to some uncertainty in this forecast, is not the preferred solution.