Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-04-06T00:17:50

High energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) is forecast to oscillate between moderate and high (1000 pfu) through the forecast period, as the solar wind eases, reducing the rate of electron inputs into the radiation belts. High levels are still likely during the diurnal peaks, but with a decreasing magnitude. However the British Antarctic Survey Radiation Belt Model (BAS-RBM) is forecasting a build of high energy electron density at lower orbits, which could relax towards GEO as the solar wind speed, and by inference, pressure eases.

Electron fluence has been at relatively steady levels and remains just below the active threshold, and probabilities have been kept at relatively high values to account for the active threshold being breached, which is likely over the next few days.