Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-04-03T00:19:54

The flux at GOES16 is at Moderate, but near to High levels to start the period. As the influence of the HSS from CH88/- continues to wane on Day 1 (03 Apr) it is likely that diurnal fluctuations in electron flux will reach High levels again. There is a very slight chance that CME influences could suppress observed flux values temporarily back towards Normal Background, adding uncertainty into the forecast early in the period.  

As the HSS from CH89/- and/or CH90/- affects Earth from Day 2 (04 Apr) and perhaps also a glancing blow from another CME, it is likely that the electron belts will be compressed and flux values should return to Normal Background levels for a period. Electron counts would be expected to rise again into Day 4 (06 Apr) as geomagnetic activity likely subsides, bringing an increased chance of High electron flux levels being reached. 

Confidence in electron fluence levels is lower than usual given the uncertainty in any CME and HSS impacts during the period. Fluence levels are currently just below the Active threshold, but are expected to increase to Active levels on Day 1 and likely persist early on Day 2, ahead of any reduction due to the onset of one or more coronal hole HSS. Electron fluence may then reach Active levels once again on Day 4 as Geomagnetic activity subsides.  

MOSWOC REFM forecast is currently over-forecasting fluence levels, though the general trend during the period is thought to be a reasonable guide for the coming days.