MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-04-02T00:08:31
The flux at GEO has been at Moderate to High levels in recent hours. This is thought likely to generally continue due to the persistent elevated solar winds. Geomagnetic activity likely at times however with ongoing HSS and possible transitory CME effects either of which could see the flux at GEO perhaps temporarily reduced back towards normal background, adding uncertainty to the forecast. Fluence levels are above the Active threshold currently and expected to remain generally so, though confidence is low given uncertainty in the flux at GEO.
MOSWOC REFM forecast is a little muted in its expected response, with persistence preferred at this stage.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2023-04-02T00:08:31 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 80% | 5% |
| Day 2 | 70% | 5% |
| Day 3 | 50% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 50% | 1% |