Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-04-01T00:21:04

The flux at GEO has been significantly attenuated by geomagnetic activity from the coronal hole fast wind associated with CH88 in the past 24 hours, but flux levels are increasing as solar wind speeds have declined in recent hours with fluence levels beginning to rise in response.

MOSWOC REFM is perhaps a little muted in its expected response, with something more similar to persistence preferred, whereby fluence levels should exceed Active levels into the UTC weekend. There is a slight question mark as to the presence and effect of any glancing blow from a CME later Day 2 into Day 3, although the most likely course of events is that this CME will miss to no effect of electrons at GEO. The presence of any CIR associated approaching coronal holes also adds to the complication into Day 3 before we should see fluence levels decrease into Day 4 as we look to move into coronal hole fast winds, most likely associated with CH90.