MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-03-31T00:22:09
The high energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux is expected to remain below the High threshold (1e3 pfu), but under the influence of the HSS from CH88, and also diminishing geomagnetic activity later in the period, the flux is likely to breach the High threshold again from late day 2 (1st), becoming predominantly high for day 4 (3rd)
The corresponding 24-hour fluence will therefore increase later in the period, and is expected to breach the Active threshold by the end of the period. The MOSWOC REFM model is considering to be offering reasonable guidance, with an acceptable trend.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2023-03-31T00:22:09 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 30% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 50% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 70% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 80% | 5% |