MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-03-29T00:14:55
The high energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux is at Moderate to High levels. There is considered a reasonably strong potential for further day-on-day increases in flux during day 1 (29th), possibly extending into day 2 (30th) of the four-day forecast period. The 1000pfu High threshold is likely to be breached at diurnal maximum each day in the expected absence of further significant geomagnetic activity.
There is a slight chance of the Active 24-hour integrated electron fluence being realised on day 1 (29th March), perhaps into day 2 (30th). However, this reduces by days 3 and 4 (March 31st and 1st April) as Earth enters a High Speed Stream (HSS) from CH88/-.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2023-03-29T00:14:55 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 80% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 60% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 40% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 20% | 1% |