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MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit

Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-03-29T00:14:55

The high energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux is at Moderate to High levels. There is considered a reasonably strong potential for further day-on-day increases in flux during day 1 (29th), possibly extending into day 2 (30th) of the four-day forecast period. The 1000pfu High threshold is likely to be breached at diurnal maximum each day in the expected absence of further significant geomagnetic activity.

There is a slight chance of the Active 24-hour integrated electron fluence being realised on day 1 (29th March), perhaps into day 2 (30th). However, this reduces by days 3 and 4 (March 31st and 1st April) as Earth enters a High Speed Stream (HSS) from CH88/-. 

 
High Energy Electron Event Forecast
Issued 2023-03-29T00:14:55
Probability of threshold exceedance
 ActiveV.Active
Day 1 80% 1%
Day 2 60% 1%
Day 3 40% 1%
Day 4 20% 1%