MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-03-28T00:08:34
The high energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux is now at High levels. There is considered a reasonably strong potential for further day-on-day increases in flux during days 1 to 2 (28th and 29th), possibly extending into day 3 (30th) of the four-day forecast period, with the 1000pfu High threshold now Expected to be breached at diurnal maximum each day in the expected absence of further significant geomagnetic activity.
Active 24-hour integrated electron fluence perhaps carries a Chance of being realised on day 1 (27th March). It is Expected that Active fluence levels will be reached on day 1 and 2 (28th and 29th March), perhaps into day 3 (30th), this reduces to a Chance by day 4 (31st).
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2023-03-28T00:08:34 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 90% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 80% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 60% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 40% | 1% |