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MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit

Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-03-28T00:08:34

The high energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux is now at High levels. There is considered a reasonably strong potential for further day-on-day increases in flux during days 1 to 2 (28th and 29th), possibly extending into day 3 (30th) of the four-day forecast period, with the 1000pfu High threshold now Expected to be breached at diurnal maximum each day in the expected absence of further significant geomagnetic activity.

Active 24-hour integrated electron fluence perhaps carries a Chance of being realised on day 1 (27th March). It is Expected that Active fluence levels will be reached on day 1 and 2 (28th and 29th March), perhaps into day 3 (30th), this reduces to a Chance by day 4 (31st).

 
High Energy Electron Event Forecast
Issued 2023-03-28T00:08:34
Probability of threshold exceedance
 ActiveV.Active
Day 1 90% 1%
Day 2 80% 1%
Day 3 60% 1%
Day 4 40% 1%