Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-03-25T00:19:45

The high energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux is currently at mostly background levels due to suppression by recent geomagnetic activity. We are also starting to see effects from the anticipated HSS from CH86, which is likely to continue the suppression with radiation belt compression through at least Day 1 and probably into Day 2 (25-26 Mar). Thereafter it is considered likely that the HSS and possibly the recent CME effects will have caused electron charging, with an increase in flux levels expected through the coming days as the HSS starts to wane. It is probable that flux will reach high levels at the diurnal maxima towards the end of the period, with moderate confidence.

The associated 24-hour fluence is also expected to rise through this period, with Active (1e8 integrated pfu) conditions becoming likely later in the period. MOSWOC REFM is suggesting a rise below Active by Day 3 (27 Mar), which is a good trend although possibly a little low.