Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-03-23T13:02:41

The high energy (greater than 2MeV) electron flux observed by GOES16 is expected to become suppressed on day 1 (Thursday 23 March) due to potential CME arrivals and the CIR associated with CH86/-. Flux levels are then likely to rise on day 2 (Friday 24 March) in the enhanced solar wind environment, with the UTC weekend then potentially seeing High levels. 

MOSWOC REFM has a relatively flat 72-hour forecast trend, which is perhaps a little surprising given the magnitude of the expected CH86/- enhancement of 600-700km/s. It is possible that the promontory extending from the bulk of the hole up towards the solar equator was not present to the same degree on last pass, which will have limited CH86's predecessor's potency. Given the initial complication of up to two CMEs in the forecast, REFM is felt to be overly-damped in the forecast period, and a more reactive trace can be expected, even if Active fluence is not eventually realised.

The associated 24-hour fluence is expected to be below the Active (1e8 integrate pfu) level through days 1-2 (the end of the UTC working week). However, fluence levels are expected to rise from day 2 (Friday 24 March) and are likely to exceed the Active threshold over the UTC weekend.