Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-03-22T12:10:59

The high energy (greater than 2MeV) electron flux observed by GOES-16 is expected to be mainly background to Moderate days 1 and 2 (22nd and 23rd) with any enhancement from the fast wind arrival of CH85 likely to be limited. A more significant enhancement is expected from CH86 on day 2 (23rd). Coupled with potential CME arrivals, this will initially result in a dropout of values, before flux likely rises later that day, or more likely through day 3 (24th). By day 4 (25th) High levels are likely. 

The associated 24 hour fluence is expected to be below the Active (1e8 integrate pfu) level through days 1-2 (22nd and 23rd) with REFM currently giving good guidance for this period. Fluence levels are then expected to rise through day 3 (24th), likely reaching the Active levels day 4 (25th).