Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-03-21T12:18:29

The high energy (greater than 2MeV) electron flux observed by GOES-16 is expected to be mainly background to Moderate days 1 and 2 (21st and 22nd) with any enhancement from the fast wind arrival of CH85 likely to be limited. The more significant enhancement expected from CH86 on day 3 (23rd), coupled with the potential CME arrivals, will initially being a dropout in values, before likely rising later that day or more likely through day 4 (24th), likely reaching High levels by the end of the period (above 1000 pfu). 

The associated 24 hour fluence is expected to be below the Active (1e8 integrate pfu) level through days 1-3 (21st to 23rd) with REFM currently giving good guidance. Fluence levels are then expected to rise through day 4 (24th), with a chance of reaching the Active level by the end of the period.