MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-03-19T13:18:33
The high energy (greater than 2MeV) electron flux observed by GOES-16 is expected to be mainly background through the period. A modest increase is possible later day 3 and day 4 (21st and 22nd) due to any enhanced solar wind environment from the fast wind of CH85/+ or potential glancing CME impact, however this is low confidence. This may bring periods of Moderate flux, with only very slight chance of briefly reaching High levels. Any CIR arrival ahead of CH86/- on day 4 will then likely result in flux levels dropping out again.
The associated 24 hour fluence is expected to be below the Active (1e8 integrate pfu) level with REFM currently giving good guidance.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2023-03-19T13:18:33 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 1% | 1% |