MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-03-18T13:29:19
The high energy (>2MeV) electron flux observed by GOES-16 is currently mainly at background, with no significant enhancements now expected until at least day 3 with the transition into the fast wind of CH84. This enhancement is also expected to be muted, and alongside the potential for a CME glance on day 3 or early day 4 (20th and 21st), confidence remains low for any notable increase in flux levels beyond this date.
The associated 24 hour fluence is expected to be below the Active (1e8 integrate pfu) level with REFM currently giving good guidance.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2023-03-18T13:29:19 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 5% | 1% |