Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-03-17T13:14:07

The high energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux at GEO, as observed by GOES-16, is expected to persist at largely Background levels on Day 1 (17 Mar), before probably increasing slightly through the rest of period. Flux levels are expected to reach predominantly Moderate levels, with a chance of reaching High levels by late Day 2 (18 Mar). The associated 24 hour electron fluence is expected to remain below the Active level, gradually trending upwards during Days 2-4 (17-19 Mar), with only a slight chance of the Active threshold being reached late in the period. Therefore Met Office REFM output is currently considered to be giving good guidance for the overall forecast trend.