MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-03-16T01:36:35
The high energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux at GEO, as observed by GOES-16, is expected to persist at largely Background levels on Day 1 (16 Mar), but is then likely to recover as the residual influence from CMEs and HSS wanes. Flux levels are likely to rise to Moderate, with a chance of reaching High levels by Day 3 (18 Mar).
The associated 24 hour electron fluence is expected persist at below the Active level, gradually trending upwards during Days 2-3 (17-18 Mar), with only a slight chance of the Active threshold being reached. REFM is currently considered to be giving good guidance for the overall trend.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2023-03-16T01:36:35 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 20% | 1% |