Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-03-15T13:33:25

The high energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux at GEO, as observed by GOES-16, is expected to persist at Background to Moderate levels, with the arrival of a CME early on Day 1 (15 Mar) acting to suppress flux. The arrival of any further CMEs during Days 1-2 (15-16 Mar) and/or the high speed stream from CH84/+ will likely continue to suppress flux. Flux levels are expected to recover towards the end of the period as the residual influence from any CMEs and the weak HSS wanes. Flux levels likely to rise to Moderate by the end of the period, with a chance of reaching High levels by Day 4 (18 Mar).

The associated 24 hour electron fluence is expected persist at below the Active level, gradually trending towards the Active threshold during Days 3-4 (17-18 Mar), with only a slight chance of the Active threshold being crossed. REFM is currently considered to be giving good guidance.