MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-03-15T00:10:54
The high energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux at GEO, as observed by GOES-16, is expected to persist at Background to Moderate levels, with faster winds from CH84/+ or any CME likely to continue suppressing flux. Flux levels are likely to rise more persistently towards Moderate by the end of the period.
The associated 24 hour electron fluence is expected persist at below the Active level, likely declining initially. REFM is currently giving good guidance on expected conditions.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2023-03-15T00:10:54 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 10% | 1% |