MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-03-13T01:11:01
The high energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux at GEO, as observed by GOES-16, is expected to persist at Background to Moderate levels. Any arrival of fast wind from CH84/+ is likely to drop electron fluxed further, to mainly background. With only a weak connection expected to the HSS from this feature, flux levels are likely to then persist at mainly background, perhaps rising to Moderate by the end of the period.
The associated 24 hour electron fluence is expected persist at below the Active level and likely declining. REFM is currently giving a good guide to expected conditions before any soar wind enhancement from CH84/+ HSS occurs.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2023-03-13T01:11:01 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 5% | 1% |