Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-03-12T12:19:46

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) has been at background to moderate levels through the past 24 hours. Electron flux is expected to continue to follow a slow declining trend until after the next CH HSS becomes established, but this is likely to be beyond the current period. The BAS radiation belt model is suggesting high electron populations in lower Earth orbits, but there appears to be limited mechanisms for the electrons to reach higher orbits.

Electron fluence remains below the Active threshold on a relatively flat trend. Levels will probably continue to follow a steady or gradual declining trend through the period, with no inputs or enhancements into the belts until after the next CH HSS becomes connected. The output from Met Office REFM is considered to be giving a good guide, and probabilities for reaching Active fluence are relatively low.