Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-03-10T12:09:23

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) has been oscillating between high and moderate levels through the last 24 hours, as the influence of the long-lived high speed streams from coronal holes 81 and 82 wane. In the absence of further coronal holes and with limited geomagnetic activity, electron flux is expected to continue to follow a declining trend through the period, with peaks increasingly likely to be below the high threshold through the period. The BAS radiation belt model is suggesting that there are high electron populations in lower Earth orbits, but with no significant geomagnetic activity forecast and solar wind speeds approaching background levels there appears to be limited mechanisms for the electrons to reach higher orbits.

Electron fluence has dropped significantly and is now comfortably below the Active threshold. Fluence is expected to continue to follow a gradual declining trend through the period, with no inputs or enhancements into the belts forecast from high speed streams or CMEs. The REFM model is considered to be giving a good guide, and probabilities for reaching Active fluence have been reduced accordingly.